Labour sink into the Clyde

How on earth is Gordon Brown going to spin this one, or indeed survive until the next General Election?

He has now presided over two monumental bi-election catastrophes (Henley, though not great, doesn’t count) and some of the worst local election results in Labour's history. What can he possibly do to get out of this deep, deep hole?

He can no longer pose as the friend of the middle classes; having taxed them heavily for a decade during the good times, he failed to hold a surplus with which to fund tax cuts when things became tight. Instead, the rapid deflation of the housing bubble (inflated by artificially low interest rates) and the rising cost of food and fuel have driven the coping classes back to the Tories.

Nor, it seems, can he any longer rely on the traditional rock-bed of Labour support amongst the poorer classes in Britain’s major metropolitan areas. Glasgow East and Crewe and Nantwich have demonstrated that the 10p Tax Fiasco has seriously undermined Labour’s credentials as the party of the working classes. They will have to work hard to win them back.

Finally, Brown cannot make up for his charisma deficiency by relying on the dour but competent line that was to be his defining quality. Remember “Not Flash, Just Gordon”? Well, what voters definitely will remember is the election that never was, the lost data discs, the stolen lap-tops, Northern Rock and the myriad of Budget Statements to put right his bungled final budget tax wheeze. Not Competent, Just Useless. And once a reputation for competence has gone, it doesn’t come back in a hurry.

The last year has exposed the shallow sands upon which the New Labour project was built. Without the benefit of the NICE decade, and the salesmanship of a leader who could appeal beyond Labour’s core support, people are now realising that this is, and always has been, just another tax and spend Labour Government. Their only hope is to recover their core support in time for the next election. With the Unions now providing 90% of Labour’s funding, expect a significant shift to the Left. Blair could defy calls for a return to traditional Labour policies thanks to non-Union funding and electoral succcess. Brown has no such luxury.